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Главная » Готовые исследования » "Food Retail and Consumer market of Russia Review. Results of 2018 and trends of 2019. Development prospects till 2021"
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"Food Retail and Consumer market of Russia Review. Results of 2018 and trends of 2019. Development prospects till 2021"

  • Release date: 30.06.2019
  • Number page: 120
  • Lang. report: English
  • Price:150000 руб   2048 USD   1745 EUR

Idea of the project. For more than 20 years, conducting daily monitoring and studying in detail the Russian economy and its individual segments, INFOLine specialists came to the idea of creating a unique product – a comprehensive line of studies of the main sectors of the Russian economy. Analytical materials include the dynamics of the development of industries over the past 5 years and prospects for the next three years in the following areas:

·        Construction industry of Russia;

·        Transport industry of Russia;

·        Agro-industrial complex of Russia;

·        Production of food and beverages in Russia;

·        Fuel and energy complex of Russia;

·        Food retail and the consumer market of Russia;

·        Non-Food retail and the consumer market of Russia.

The studies are based on a common methodology and structure, which allows not only to obtain detailed data within one industry, but also to analyze and compare the indicators of the development of industries among themselves.

ATTENTION! The studies are released in a convenient electronic presentation format: this is the optimal format, which apart from text material includes a large amount of graphic material (figures, diagrams, tables), as well as hyperlinks to the most important regulatory documents and company websites.

Relevance of the study "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019. Forecast up to 2021."

The retail market mainly depends on the purchasing power of the population. The industry situation worsened significantly after the macroeconomic events of 2014, sharp ruble weakening and food embargo introduction. In 2018, real cash incomes of the population again showed a reduction, and the model of consumer behavior changed from saving to lean consumption. In addition, convenience and time saving have become one of the consumers" priorities, which stimulates the development of e-Commerce (delivery services) and negatively affects traffic and sales in hypermarkets. On the Food Retail market, the largest development is gained by retail chains selling goods at a price close to the wholesale, namely, discounters, with federal chains having the highest rates. Thus, discounters are the most dynamically growing format. The ongoing reconstruction programs can improve the perceived quality of the service provided. Moreover, the market has a high level of retail chain consolidation. It significantly increases the threshold for entering the industry, leads to large-scale promotional activities, and, as a result, negatively affects the profitability of retailers and suppliers. In order to understand what the pace of retail market recovery is and what to expect in the future, we conducted a comprehensive study of the industry, covering all its segments. The proposed product can help you determine the position of your own company regarding the industry dynamics and outline possible ways of business development.

Study purposes: 

·        FMCG Retail Industry Overview

·        FMCG retailer rating by revenue, number of retail properties, volume of selling space and formats

·        Overview of the industry development vector by describing its milestones

·        Industry development forecast

·        Scenario forecast for the Food retail market development

·        Analysis of the activities of the industry leaders

·        Analysis of consumer behavior

·        Review and analysis of state regulation.

A high synergistic effect is achieved using the study "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019. Forecast up to 2021." together with other INFOLine products in this industry:

·        "Non-Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019. Forecast up to 2021."

o   "INFOLine Retail Russia ТOP-100"

o   "State of the Russian Consumer Market and FMCG Retail Chain Rating: Results of 2018-2019"

o   "Base of 700 Russian FMCG Retail Chains"

o   "Russian Consumer Market and FMCG Retail Chain Rating"

o   "Russian DIY Market"

o   "Russian Household Market"

o   "Base of 600 Universal and Specialized DIY Chains"

Applcations of study results: benchmarking, competitor analysis, marketing and strategic planning, search for customers and partners, preparation for negotiations with retail chains.
Study timeframe:
 Dynamics since 2012, Results of 2018 (macroeconomic retail indicators, demand on the consumer market, market capacity and dynamics by segments, operating indicators of retail chains), Forecasts for 2019-2021 (capacity, dynamics and structure of the Russian retail market in the FMCG market, strategies and development plans for the largest networks).

Study period: H1 2019.

Study advantages:

·        Innovative format of electronic presentation.

·        Structured description and analysis of trends and prospects for the FMCG market development in Russia.

·        Scenario forecasts for industry development up to 2021 prepared by INFOLine specialists.

·        Development forecasts of leading FMCG chains.

·        Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers: results of 2018, forecast for 2019.

·        The basis of the study is the annually updated and replenished database of over 1,000 leading retail chains in Russia in various areas of trade; during the year, analysts non-stop collect, aggregate, verify and analyze the operational and financial indicators of Russian retail companies.

·        FMCG retail chain ratings (TOP-10) by financial and operational indicators.

·        FMCG retail chain ratings (TOP-5) by trade formats (hypermarket, supermarket, discounter, convenience store, specialized chains (alcohol and meat products segments).

The presentation is available in English.

Study objectives and structure of the by sections: 

Part I. Retail performance indicators. Macroeconomic retail indicators: GDP dynamics and breakdown, dynamics and structure of retail turnover by segments and types of goods. Dynamics of incomes and expenses of the population. Consumer lending and deposits. Structure of cash income and expenses of the population. Consumer behavior.

Part II. Retail milestones. Retail state regulation. Events and activities of international companies on the country"s market. Quality control of consumer goods.

Part III. FMCG retail performance Indicators. The dynamics and structure of the market, shares of key players, the number of facilities and selling space of retailers (based on a sample of TOP-200 Russian FMCG retailers), the dynamics and forecast of investment activity, development trends and prospects. Chain ratings by revenue, selling space, trade formats and development prospects of leading retailers. Development of online trade by FMCG chains, wholesale, delivery services. Opening of distribution centers, M&A deals. 

Part IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers. Sales dynamics of leading FMCG suppliers, share of sales of leading suppliers through the FMCG chains. Company development and government regulation. Interaction of leading suppliers with FMCG chains.

Part V. Food retail development forecast. Scenario conditions and indicators of Russian economic development in 2019-2021, INFOLine Food retail development scenarios, dynamics forecast of population incomes and expenditures, forecast of retail turnover, forecast of food retail turnover by sales channels, forecast of the number and area of FMCG facilities by sales channels. 

Industry review "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019" is given in several stages:

·        March 2019: Industry overview "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019". It contains 6 sections: Retail and consumer market performance indicators. Retail milestones. FMCG retail performance indicators. Leading FMCG chains in Russia. FMCG retail regional development. State of the shopping center market. The sections summarize the results of 2018 on macroeconomic indicators, financial and operational indicators of leading FMCG chains, describe market development trends for 2019. Ratings by formats (hypermarket, supermarket, discounter and convenience store) are given. Ratings of retail chains on the federal districts market are updated following the results of 2018. The review also presents major investment projects for the construction of shopping centers, hypermarkets and distribution centers.

·        April 2019: Industry review "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019. Forecast up to 2021". The review is supplemented by 2 sections: Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers. FMCG retail development forecast.

 

 

Experience and references: INFOLine has been carrying out custom research for its clients and launching independent studies in Russian retail trade since 2005, and forms cross-industry and industry ratings in the following areas: FMCG, DIY and other areas. Our regular customers are more than 50 retail chains (including market leaders: X5 Retail Group, OKEY, Lenta, Auchan, Leroy Merlin, IKEA, OBI, STD Petrovich, Maxidom, M.Video, Yulmart and others) and more than 100 manufacturers and suppliers of consumer goods (Procter&Gamble, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, SABMiller, Fazer, Mars, Henkel, Tarkett, Saint-Gobain, Henkel, Knauf and many others).

The INFOLine Retail Russia TOP-100 rating of leading retailers in Russia is the most authoritative and cited; major business media such as Kommersant, Vedomosti, RBK, etc. regularly use it in their publications. Moreover, INFOLine has unique competencies and experience in conducting industry studies: (Food, Non-Food) and the real estate market. 

 

 

You can request the Information Needs Questionnaire and a complete list of finished studies and other INFOLine information products HERE. Sending us a filled questionnaire to get a short version of any product you are interested in for FREE.

Information sources:

·        Data of the Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion.

·        Reports and statements of international and domestic companies according to IFRS.

·        Questionnaires, monthly surveys and interviews of over 200 FMCG retail chains, data from leading retailers (website materials, press releases), monitoring the opening and closing of stores of 1,000 Russian retail chains.

·        INFOLine analytical databases: "700 Russian FMCG Retail Chains”, “600 Universal and Specialized DIY Retail Chains”, etc.

·        Results from major retail industry forums.

·        INFOLine Ratings: INFOLine RETAIL RUSSIA TOP-100, FMCG RETAIL RUSSIA TOP, DIY RETAIL RUSSIA TOP, HOUSEHOLD RETAIL RUSSIA TOP, etc.

·        INFOLine studies: "INFOLine Retail Russia ТOP-100", "Russian DIY Market", "Russian Household Mrket";

·        Other INFOLine products: Thematic News: "Food Retail and FMGG Retail Chains in Russia", Thematic News "Retail of Household and Garden Goods and DIY Retail Chains", Thematic News "Food Retail and FMGG Retail Chains", "State of the Consumer Market and Rating of Russian FMCG Retail Chains", etc.

·        Studies and reviews of other companies and associations: DSM Group "Russian Pharmaceutical Market", J"son & Partners Consulting "Russian Smartphone Market", GfK TEMAX® "Russian Market of Household Appliances and Electronics", Data Insight "Online Commerce Market", NADT “Import in Russian Internet Trade", Ipsos Comcon "Consumer Behavior of Wealthy Consumers", etc .

·        Materials of over 5,000 Russian media (daily monitoring of the federal and regional press, news agencies and electronic media).

PART I. Retail and Consumer Market Indicators

1.1. GDP Dynamics and Breakdown

1.2. Retail Turnover

1.3. Retail Turnover by Type of Goods

1.4. Retail Turnover Structure by Segments

1.5. Dynamics of Incomes and Expenditure of the Population

1.6. Consumer Lending Status and Deposits

1.7. Structure of Household Cash Income and Expenditure

1.8. Consumer Behavior

PART II. Retail milestones

2.1. Government regulation: key innovations of 2018 and changes in excise duties

2.2. Government regulation of retail. Return prohibition law

2.3. State regulation of trade

2.4. Government regulation: cash register equipment

2.5. Government regulation: Tax Free

2.6. Government regulation: online and cross-border trade

2.7. Government regulation in Non-food retail

2.8. Consumer product quality control

2.9. Government regulation: other news

2.10. Relationship with EU, USA and Turkey: regulation of sanctional products

PART III. FMCG RETAIL PERFORMANCE

3.1. Food retail structure

3.2. Number and area of top-200 FMCG chains

3.3. Structure and growth in area of top-200 FMCG chains

3.4. Dynamics and investment activity forecast of top-200 FMCG chains

3.5. Selling space format structure of top-200 FMCG chains

3.6. TOP-10 FMCG retail chains by the results of 2018 and H1 2019

3.7. Rating and performance of public FMCG retail chains

3.8. Like-for-like sales of public FMCG retail chains

3.9. Financial indicators and investments of public FMCG retail chains

3.10. FMCG retail chain format rating

3.11. Rating of specialized FMCG retail chains

3.12. Online trade development by FMCG and Foodtech chains

3.13. Wholesale trade development by FMCG retail chains

3.14. Private label development by Russian FMCG retail chains

3.15. Launch of FMCG chain distribution centers

3.16. Largest M&A deals

PART IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers

4.1. Sales results of leading FMCG suppliers in 2016-2018 and forecast for 2019

4.2. Factors impending suppliers development and criteria of successful retail chain operation

4.3. Government regulation

4.4. Share of leading suppliers sales through FMCG chains

4.5. Interaction of leading suppliers with FMCG chains

4.6. Promo sales and special range for FMCG chains in 2018 and forecast for 2019

4.7. Online sales of leading suppliers in 2017-2018 and forecast for 2021

4.8. Exports in sales structure in 2018 and forecast for 2019

PART V. Forecast for Food retail trade

5.1. Dynamics of Russias macroeconomic indicators

5.2. Consensus forecast of Russias macroeconomic indicators

5.3. Russian social and economic development scenario

5.4. Retail turnover forecast

5.5. Dynamics forecast of incomes and expenditures of population

5.6. Food retail development scenarios prepared by INFOLine

5.7. Russian food retail development forecast

5.8. Food retail turnover structure and forecast for 2021

5.9. Top-10 FMCG chain development and share and forecast for 2021

5.10. Food retail development forecast by sales channels

5.11. Facility number and area forecast by food sales channels

The Industry Review contains 114 diagrams

PART I. Retail and Consumer Market Indicators

Dynamics and Forecast of Key Economic indicators of Russia, %

Russian GDP Structure Broken by Branches of Economy, %

Dynamics of Retail Turnover, in % of the Corresponding Period of the Previous Year

Growth Rate of Consumer Prices (December to December of the Previous Year), %

Retail Turnover, % YoY

Dynamics of Food Retail Turnover, in % year-on-year

Dynamics of Non-Food Retail Turnover, in % year-on-year

Retail Turnover by Segments and Product Groups, RUB trln

Dynamics and Capacity of Retail Market Segments in 2018

Dynamics of Wages and Real Incomes, %

Household Income and Expenditure Ratio

Distribution of Population by Per Capita Income

End-of-Period Household Deposits and Loans, RUB trln

Loans and Changes in the Volume of Household Deposits, RUB trln

Structure Household Debt on Loans as of January 1, 2019,%

Structure of Household Cash Incomes by Sources of Income, %

Structure of Income Use by Areas, %

Consumer Confidence Index of the Russian Federation, %

Social and Consumer Sentiment Index

PART III. FMCG RETAIL PERFORMANCE

Food Retail Turnover Dynamics by Sales Channels

Sales Structure in FMCG Retail Chains (excluding drogerie, pharmacies and other non-food chains and facilities)

Structure of the Russian Food Retail Market in 2017, %

Structure of the Russian Food Retail Market in 2018, %

Number of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chain Facilities at the End of the Period

Change in the number of TOP-200 Russian FMCG chain facilities

Increase in the Area of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains

Area Growth Structure of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains, %

Area Growth Dynamics of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains

Area Growth Dynamics Structure of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains

Selling Space Format Structure of the TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains in 2011–2018 at the End of the Reporting Period

Selling Space Format Structure of the TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains in 2011–2018 at the End of the Reporting Period

Revenue of TOP-10 FMCG Chains

Number of Facilities and Selling Space of TOP-10 FMCG Chains at the End of the Period

Revenue of TOP-10 FMCG Chains

Number of Facilities and Selling Space of TOP-10 FMCG Chains at the End of the Period

Revenue of Public FMCG Retail Chains

Like-for-Like Sales (LFL) Dynamics of Public FMCG Chains, %

Revenues of Public FMCG Retail Chains

Like-for-Like Sales (LFL) Dynamics of Public FMCG Chains, %

Average Receipt in LFL Stores of Public FMCG Chains, %

Traffic in LFL Stores of Public FMCG Chains, %

Public FMCG Chain Financial Performance

Capital Expenditures and Net Debt of Public FMCG Chains

Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Hypermarket Format (including non-chain)

Revenues of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format

Number of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format at the End of the Period

Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format at the End of the Period

Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format

Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format

Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Supermarket Format (including non-chain stores)

Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format

Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format at the End of the Period

Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format at the End of the Period

Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format for the Period

Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format

Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Discounter Format

Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in the Discounter Format for the Period

Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format at the End of the Period

Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format at the End of the Period

Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format

Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format

Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Convenience Store Format (including non-chain stores)

Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period

Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format at the End of the Period

Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format at the End of the Period

Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period

Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period

Number and Selling Space of Facilities of TOP-5 Alcohol Store Chains at the End of the Period

Revenue of TOP-5 Alcohol Store Chains for the Period

Number and Selling Space of Facilities of TOP-5 Chains with Fresh Range at the End of the Period

Revenue of TOP-5 Chains with Fresh Range for the Period

INFOLine Russia TOP Online Food Retail 2018 Rating

Average Number of Deliveries per Day in 2018

Average Receipt at the End of 2018, in RUB including VAT

Wholesale and Other Revenue of Leading Chains

Private Label Share in Revenue of Leading FMCG Chains in 2018, %

Private Label Share in the FMCG Chain Retail Market, %

PART IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers

Sales Dynamics of Leading FMCG Suppliers in 2016-2018 and Forecast for 2019,%

Plans of FMCG Suppliers on Change in Sales in 2019,%

Factors Most Severely Impending Company Development in 2017-2018, %

Most Significant Criteria of Successful FMCG Suppliers and Chains Operation

How did amendments to the law on trade (No. 381-FZ) affect your company’s activity,%

How did the Platon system introduction affect the your company’s activity,%

How did the transition to the Mercury automated system affect your company’s activity,%

How did the USAIS system implementation affect your company’s activity,%

Share of Leading Suppliers Sales through FMCG Chains in 2016-2018 and Forecast for 2019

Plans to Change the Range of FMCG Chains Share in Total Sales in 2019, %

Retail Chains Leading Suppliers Worked with in 2017-2018, %

Number of Retail Chains Suppliers Work with 2019, %

Share of Promo Sales of Products at Discounts in 2018 and Forecast for 2019, %

FMCG Promo Sales Dynamics in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %

Special Range for FMCG Retail Chains in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %

Share of Largest Suppliers Online Sales in 2018, Forecast for 2021,%

Growth in Online Product Sales in 2018, Forecast for 2019,%

Plans to Change the Range of Online Sales Share in 2021,%

Export Share in Sales Structure in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %

Export Geography in 2018, %

Plans to change the share of exports in total sales in 2019, %

PART V. Forecast for Food retail trade

Dynamics of Main Russian Macroeconomic Indicators in 2011-2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021

Dynamics of CBR Foreign Exchange Rates in 2011-2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021

Retail Turnover Forecast

RTO Dynamics Baseline Forecast

Dynamics Forecast of Real Wages and Real Incomes of the Population

Dynamics Forecast of Implicit Wages and Per Capita Incomes of the Population

Food Retail Turnover Forecast

Food RTO Dynamics Baseline Forecast

Russian Food Retail Market Structure in 2018

Russian Food Retail Market Structure in 2021

Dynamics of TOP-10 and Modern Format Share in the Retail Market in 2014-2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021

TOP-10 Revenue in 2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021

Food RTO Baseline Forecast (including VAT) by Sales Channels

Russian Food Retail Market Structure in Monetary Terms

Forecast of the Number of Retail Facilities by Sales Channels

Forecast of the Facility Selling Space by Sales Channels


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